Silver at $60: What a 50% Drop From the Highs Means for Your Stack

Silver touched $121.64 in January. Today it’s $60. If you’ve been stacking for years and feel like you’re getting crushed, you’re not wrong about the math. But you might be wrong about what it means.

Let’s get into it.

How Silver Lost Half Its Value in Six Months

The January peak wasn’t random. The US-Iran conflict was driving a genuine safe-haven bid — both gold and silver surged as investors priced in geopolitical chaos and inflation spiraling out of control. Silver hit $121.64 on January 29, on a cocktail of war premium, speculative frenzy, and real industrial demand fears.

Then the war wound down. Ceasefire talks began. Oil prices dropped. And with them went the inflation premium that had supercharged silver’s move.

Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been signaling something markets didn’t want to hear: the Fed isn’t done. Headline CPI ran at 4.2% in May — more than double the 2% target — and after Warsh’s June meeting, nine of eighteen FOMC participants are projecting at least one hike this year. Higher rates are bad for non-yielding assets. Silver takes that on the chin harder than gold.

So here’s the brutal reality: silver went from $121 to $60 because half its price was war premium and speculative momentum. The other half is the actual price.

The Structural Story Hasn’t Changed

Here’s what I keep coming back to. The silver market is still in a structural deficit — 46.3 million ounces this year, wider than 2025’s 40.3 million, and the sixth straight annual shortfall. Since 2021 the world has drawn 762 million ounces out of above-ground stockpiles to cover the gap. Solar, EVs, AI hardware, defense electronics — these sectors aren’t slowing down their silver consumption because the price fell, and physical investment demand is set to climb 18% this year to its highest level since 2022.

And on the gold side — which underpins the broader precious metals thesis — China is buying like it’s 2009. Its bullion imports through May are up 76% on last year, roughly 692 tonnes, with May alone hitting 163 tonnes, the most since March 2024. The PBOC itself has added gold every month since November 2024. That’s not tactical positioning. That’s a structural shift in how the world’s second-largest economy is thinking about reserves and dollar exposure.

The secular bull case for hard assets is intact.

The Bottom Line

If you bought silver at $100+ in January chasing the war rally, that stings. Genuinely. But if you’ve been stacking on a regular schedule, this is exactly the environment that dollar-cost averaging is built for. You’re buying ounces 50% cheaper than you could have six months ago.

The question isn’t “should I sell at $60?” The question is “what do I think silver is worth when the Fed eventually pivots, the structural deficit forces a supply response, and China keeps hoarding?” Nobody can answer that with a number, and anyone who hands you one is guessing with confidence.

Keep stacking. Slower if you’re overextended, steady if you’re not. The thesis hasn’t broken — the speculation has been rinsed out of it. That’s usually when the real accumulation begins.