Friday Gold Bounced on Hormuz Peace Talks. Monday Trump Said No.

Seven days. That’s how long Iran said it would take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington met its terms. Trump needed about one to say no. And gold, which bounced on Friday on the hope of exactly this kind of deal, spent Monday morning giving it all back.

Kitco had spot gold at $4,165 early Monday, down 2.78%. Silver fared worse: $61.29, down 4.49%. On Friday, Kitco had gold at $4,300. That bounce lasted one weekend.

What Actually Happened

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi laid out a plan at the UN General Assembly, per Al Jazeera. The U.S. releases frozen Iranian funds, lifts oil sanctions, and ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Those steps take four to five days. The strait reopens and final negotiations start by day seven.

On Saturday, Trump told reporters at the White House the proposal “would not be acceptable.” He said Iran wants a deal “because they are losing so badly.” He also said he’d like to make a deal too. Araghchi answered that Iran “will not back down” on its conditions. So: two sides that both say they want a deal, and neither moving.

On Friday I wrote that the market was rallying on talks whose own sources gave them low odds. This is what low odds look like when they arrive.

Oil Is Still Holding the Leash

The machine that’s run gold all month just ran again. Kitco had Brent around $108.30 on Monday, up more than 3%. Higher oil means hotter inflation. Hotter inflation means a Fed with more reason to hike. Kitco put the odds of an October hike at 68–70%, with the 10-year Treasury near 5.2% and the dollar index near 101.

Gold pays you nothing. When a Treasury pays you over 5% and the Fed looks likely to push rates higher, the cost of holding gold goes up. That’s the whole story, and it has nothing to do with whether gold is a safe haven. The war is still on. Gold is still falling. We’ve been here before.

Yahoo Finance’s morning report put gold at its lowest since August 5, down 8.2% from a month ago. And yet it’s still up 13.1% on a year ago. Silver: down 6.8% on the month, up 44.1% on the year. Zoom out and this is a correction inside a very good year. Zoom in and it feels like a bad week, because it is.

What This Means for Stackers

Nothing about your stack changed over the weekend. What changed is the price of adding to it, and it moved in your favor if you buy on a schedule. Spot is about $135 below where it sat on Friday.

Both sides are expected to talk again this week, per Kitco and Yahoo. That means another headline could flip this just as fast as Saturday’s did. I wouldn’t try to trade it. If a deal lands, oil drops and gold probably catches a bid. If it doesn’t, yields and the dollar keep deciding the price.

What I’d watch: Brent above or below $100, and those October Fed odds. Those two numbers have told you more about gold this month than any missile has.