Silver Hit a New 2026 Low. Another Big Miner Just Said It's Making Less.

Silver touched $52.67 this week. That’s the lowest of 2026, per FXStreet. Late August it briefly traded above $70.

Meanwhile one of the world’s big silver miners just reported it dug up a lot less of the stuff. If you think those two facts should be connected, welcome to the club. The market hasn’t joined.

What Fresnillo Said

Heraeus, writing in Kitco, reports Fresnillo’s third-quarter attributable silver output at 10.3 million ounces. That’s down 5.5% from the second quarter and down 11.6% from 11.7 million a year earlier. Lower ore grades at three mines were the cause, plus the end of a Silverstream contribution.

The nine-month total is 32.4 million ounces, down 11.5% year over year. Full-year guidance is 42.0 to 46.5 million. Hitting the low end means 9.6 million ounces in the fourth quarter, per Heraeus.

I wrote earlier this month about First Majestic’s San Dimas mine producing 41% less. Same movie, different studio. Two Mexican producers, two quarters of weaker numbers, and a price that went the wrong way both times.

Why Nobody Cares (Yet)

Because silver isn’t trading on supply this month. It’s trading on the Fed and on oil.

Heraeus has Brent above $110 after renewed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, with a December Fed hike still priced in. FXStreet has the Dollar Index near 102.23, close to a two-week high, and notes higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. Silver was near $54.50 Tuesday, up about 1%. Heraeus had it near $53.77 Monday, more than 20% under the late-August high.

Gold has the same problem. Kitco had it at $4,048 Tuesday after a surprisingly strong consumer confidence reading. A bounce. Not a turn.

One more fair point: Fresnillo’s guidance is a range, not a collapse. Heraeus puts the company’s output at roughly 5% of 2025 global mined supply at the Q4 pace needed for the low end. One miner’s bad quarter doesn’t rewrite the world’s supply.

The Bottom Line

Supply news is real and it’s piling up. But it is a slow variable, and the Fed is a fast one. Wednesday’s decision is expected to be a pause, according to BNY via FXStreet. The words around it, from Chair Warsh, are what traders will chew on.

FXStreet lists $50 as the next support and $55 as first resistance. Those are chart levels, not forecasts. If you stack silver monthly, nothing about this changes the plan you already have. What it changes is the story you can tell yourself about why the price is low: it isn’t because the metal got easier to find.