Russia Sold Another 6.2 Tonnes of Gold. Its Reserves Are Back to 2019 Levels.

Russia sold 6.2 tonnes of gold in September. That’s 200,000 ounces, and it took the Bank of Russia’s holdings down to 72.8 million ounces, or 2,264 tonnes. Kitco, citing the central bank’s figures, says that’s the lowest since the end of 2019.

Same week, spot gold was trading around $4,076, down 1.5% on the day. So no, this isn’t a story about a seller crashing the market. It’s a story about who is selling, and why.

A Seller With a Reason

Compare this to Kazakhstan, which told us two weeks ago it was trimming because Treasury yields made the dollar more attractive. That’s a portfolio manager rebalancing. Russia is a different animal.

The Bank of Russia’s own explanation, from Governor Elvira Nabiullina in September, is that the decline mainly reflects Finance Ministry operations using National Wealth Fund money under the country’s fiscal rule. Translation: the government is spending the rainy-day fund, and part of that fund is gold. Kitco’s read is that Moscow is struggling to finance a ballooning budget deficit. The central bank doesn’t disclose more detail than that.

Nobody in that chain said “gold looks expensive.” Nobody said it looks cheap, either. The metal is a checking account.

The Pace Is Steady, Not Dramatic

According to Interfax, Russia’s gold has dropped by 0.2 to 0.3 million ounces every month this year. Through the end of August, that added up to about 56 tonnes since January. Kitco puts the total since December at about 62 tonnes and says it’s now ten straight monthly reductions.

Here’s the thing about that math. Sixty-odd tonnes out of roughly 2,300 is a rounding error for a market this size. It’s the direction that’s interesting. Russia was a major buyer from 2014 to 2019 and suspended purchases in 2020. Now it’s a steady seller, and the buyer of last resort has become a source of supply.

The Number That Moved More Than the Gold

Here’s the part that surprised me. The value of Russia’s gold fell $31.9 billion in September, to $301.6 billion, a 9.6% drop, per Interfax citing the central bank. Almost none of that was the 6.2 tonnes. It was price. Gold gets marked down, and the balance sheet shrinks with it. Gold’s share of Russian reserves slid from 43.4% to 41.2% in a month without anyone doing much of anything.

That’s useful for you. When you read “reserves fell $X billion,” ask how much was selling and how much was the price. Usually it’s the price.

What This Means for Stackers

Don’t read this as a bearish signal. Six tonnes is a tiny piece of the market, and the reason is fiscal, not a view on gold. It’s also a reminder that official-sector demand, which has been a pillar of the bull case, isn’t a one-way street this year. Kazakhstan trims on yields. Russia trims on budget math.

What to watch: whether other cash-strapped sellers show up. If you stack monthly, the price today is $4,076 and the plan is the plan. That’s the whole point of a plan.