The Jobs Bounce Lasted a Morning. Gold Closed the Week Down 3.4%.

Last time I wrote about this, gold had popped back above $4,200 on a terrible jobs report. By the close, it was at $4,140.

That’s the update. The bounce didn’t last the day.

The Good News Was Not Good Enough

The economy added 29,000 jobs in September. Economists expected 90,000. Weak numbers are supposed to be gold’s friend, because weak jobs mean a softer Fed. Gold didn’t get the memo. Spot fell 0.9% on Friday and finished down about 3.4% for the week, according to Reuters.

Silver slid 0.8% to $60.36 on Friday. Platinum fell 2%.

Why? Bill Adams at Fifth Third put it plainly: the report “wasn’t bad enough to shift the Fed’s focus away from inflation.” Translation: the labor market is soft, but not soft enough to make the Fed blink.

A Correction to Our Own Math

In my last post I said October hike odds were below 15%. Reuters now has them near 22%, and Trading Economics says near 20%. Same direction, different snapshot, so I’ve updated the earlier post. The bigger point holds: odds dropped from about 70% earlier in the week, and gold still fell.

December is the number that matters. Trading Economics has the odds above 80%. The market isn’t pricing a pivot. It’s pricing a pause.

The Month Is the Story

Trading Economics shows gold down 7.45% over the past month, though still 6.53% higher than a year ago. Reuters notes 10- and 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2002 on Thursday. Gold pays you nothing. A bond paying that much makes the comparison uncomfortable.

Analysts are split. David Morrison at Trade Nation thinks gold may retest the $4,000 band of support, then consolidate for a rally. Phillip Streible at Blue Line Futures says he just can’t be bullish. Edward Meir at Marex says the charts look “fairly grim.” Nobody is calling this a bottom with confidence, and I’d be suspicious of anyone who does.

The Bottom Line

If you buy on a schedule, nothing about this week changes your schedule. You’re paying about 7% less than a month ago, and that’s arithmetic, not advice.

Watch two things: whether $4,000 holds, and whether the data softens enough to move December’s hike odds. Until one of them does, expect more days like Friday.